Can Scientists Predict a Broken Promise?

For as long as man has been able to speak we have made promises to one another. And for as long as we have made each other promises, those promises have been broken. Some perfidious individuals might live by the maxim that a promise is there to be broken, but how can we tell them from the faithful friends who will abide by their word?

Tell-Tale Signs of a Promise Breaker

Scientists at the University of Zurich have conducted research that indicates that promise breakers give off tell-tale signs at the moment of commitment that may be able to accurately predict their intentions. In a study led by Dr. Thomas Baumgartner and Professor Ernst Fehr together with the University of Konstanz’s Professor Urs Fishbacher, participants’ brain activity was monitored at the moment of the promise ‘break’, as well as at the moment when the promise was made.

In order to realistically reproduce real life promise scenarios, participants who were to break promises stood to receive a reward (monetary) while those whose trust was abused stood to lose in the same manner.

Breaking Promises Causes Emotional Conflict

The results revealed that the parts of the brain that address control and emotional response were both involved in the process of breaking a promise. The results seemingly confirm that failing to follow through on one’s word causes a moment of conflict and emotional turmoil for the promise breaker. Furthermore, in those who made a promise with the no intention of keeping it, the test showed increased activity in these centers of the brain at the moment the promise was made, thus forecasting the breach of trust that lay ahead.

Brain Waves Could Predict Future Intentions

The findings could theoretically form the basis for future technologies to predict behaviors in suspect individuals. In the same way that a polygraph or lie detector test can gauge an individual’s truthfulness regarding events from their past, brain waves might be monitored when questioning individuals about future intentions, perhaps predicting criminal intent or forewarning of transgressions to come, as Dr Baumgartner explained. “Such a finding thus permits the speculation that the measurement of brain activity could be applied in the distant future not only to catch culprits, but even beyond this perhaps to aid in the prevention of fraudulent and criminal intrigues – a vision already made reality in the science fiction film ‘Minority Report’.”

However, the Tom Cruise-style “future crime” application seems an unlikely one, with the results more realistically destined for use in further studies to better understand the riddles of human psychology and the intricacies of interpersonal relationships.

Unraveling Antisocial Behavior

Professor Ernst Fehr explained the possible practical applications of the findings in today’s context. “We've discovered critical elements of the neuronal basis of broken promises. In light of the significance of promises in everyday, interpersonal cohabitation in society, these findings offer the prospect of being able to fathom and better understand the brain’s physiological basis of pro-social and especially of antisocial behavior in general."

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